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Later today, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will give a speech at the central bank’s annual summit in Wyoming. Investors he'll drop hints that policymakers are ready to resume cutting interest rates next month.

Whether that happens will be felt across global prime housing markets. Average annual price growth across 51ÂÒÂ×'s 46-city Prime Global Cities Index is slowing amid uncertainty over the timing and scale of interest rate cuts in key global economies like the US. The Fed's decisions in particular tend to influence worldwide monetary policy via movements in the dollar, which affect import prices, inflation, and capital flows – ultimately shaping rate decisions by other central banks.

Testing resilience

Average global prime residential prices rose by 2.3% in the 12 months to June 2025, down from 3.5% in Q1, according to our index. That's the weakest annual growth rate since the final quarter of 2023. 

While rates have eased in recent quarters, borrowing costs remain elevated by historical standards, weighing on buyer sentiment and testing price resilience. On a quarterly basis, the overall index saw a modest fall of 0.1%, a significant slowdown from the 1.3% uplift recorded in the first quarter of the year. The proportion of cities registering annual price growth has also fallen marginally, from 78% last quarter to 75%.

Strong underlying fundamentals such as wealth creation and supply constraints in prime districts will support prices, but a significant acceleration during the second half of the year remains unlikely.

New restrictions

Asian cities continue to lead the rankings. Seoul remains the strongest performer, with annual growth of 25.2%.

That remarkable growth rate is a problem for the government. President Lee Jae Myung took office in June after pledging to bring down the cost of living, and the government yesterday announced new restrictions on overseas property purchases in the greater Seoul area. 

Starting next week, overseas buyers will need advanced approval to purchase homes. Those successful must move into the home within four months of receiving permission and reside there for at least two years after the purchase, according to on an official statement. Housing transactions by overseas buyers have climbed by an average of 26% annually since 2022, according to official figures. Chinese nationals account for almost three quarters of overseas purchases.

A value shift

Tokyo follows Seoul in our rankings, with annual growth of 16.3%, up from 15.5% in Q1. Unlike Seoul, there are no restrictions on foreign ownership – at least not yet – and global investors are attracted by property prices that are generally cheaper than other global cities. Meanwhile Tokyo's population continues to rise, despite a declining national population, and the number of renters is swelling amid worsening affordability and rapid urbanisation. 

These numbers may prompt an intervention, and indeed one of Japan's 23 local government wards has already sought to cool activity. Over the summer, officials in Tokyo’s Chiyoda City – home to the financial district and national parliament – called on developers to introduce curbs on speculation, Bloomberg at the time. Officials proposed a five-year ban on reselling newly purchased apartments, and urged limits on buyers acquiring multiple units in the same building.

The longer-term picture shows the extent of the shift in global real estate values. Over the past five years to Q2 2025, real estate price growth has surged most dramatically in Asia and the Middle East, with Tokyo (120%), Dubai (107%), and Seoul (81%) leading. US gateway markets – Miami, Los Angeles, and San Francisco – also posted robust gains, reflecting strong demand and limited supply. Emerging hotspots like Manila and Christchurch highlight increasing investor appetite in secondary cities. The Gold Coast and Shanghai round out a diverse, global growth landscape.

Dramatic swings

Prime rental growth has swung dramatically since 2020. Before the pandemic, annual gains held steady at or around 4%, then the Covid lockdowns drove rents into negative territory, bottoming out at -2.7% in Q1 2021. 

Rental markets responded quickly once pandemic restrictions began to lift. Growth accelerated to double digits by early 2022, driven by construction shortfalls that squeezed supply, and a shift back to office-based working that buoyed demand. However, momentum eased over 2023, and by late 2024 annual growth had cooled to just over 2%, with affordability limits being reached in many markets. 

The latest data show a modest resurgence in 2025, with annual growth ticking up to 3.5% across our 16-city Prime Global Rental Index, approaching long-term norms again.
Hong Kong and Tokyo lead luxury rental growth, with annual gains of 8.6% and 8.3%. New York is surging again – with 6.6% growth in rents over the three months to the end of June – while Los Angeles shows a modest 5.1% annual rise but a 0.7% quarterly dip. European markets like Berlin (4.9%) and Frankfurt (4.7%) remain steady, and Zurich (4.4%) edges higher short-term. Monaco has plateaued at 4.2%.

Elevated interest rates and persistent inflation are tempering prime rental growth in major cities, as affordability constraints curb tenants’ ability to push rents higher.  However, strong immigration underpins growth, and demand – set against limited new supply – will push rents towards long-term trend rates. New York and Miami are expected to sustain mid-single-digit gains, while Hong Kong and Tokyo face moderation amid regulatory headwinds. European hubs such as Berlin and London should see tight new supply delivery support low- to mid-single-digit growth.

In other news...

From our team - Oliver Knight has survey data that reveals new insights behind steep drop offs in London's residential construction. Tom Bill provides a round up of this week's property tax palaver. 

Elsewhere - Fortress JPMorgan: Jamie Dimon’s monument to American finance ().